Airbus’ latest edition of its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2021-2040 period offers a forward-looking view of air traffic and fleet pattern evolutions.
It is accounting for factors such as demographic and economic development, tourism trends as well as air cargo, aircraft efficiency, sustainability, energy-prices and airline network development. The report highlights future traffic growth and aircraft demand in the over 100 seats category as well as a services forecast over the next 20 years.
Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast serves as a reference for airlines, airports, suppliers, investors, governments, non-governmental agencies and others. It anticipates that demand for air traffic and associated services will continue to develop as air traffic begins to return to pre-crisis levels.
Aviation connects and unites us!
Aviation connections support commerce and business, governments and education while air cargo provide essential services, carrying 35 % of world trade by value, including assistance for global health systems. Also: People want and need to connect. Transnational communities (over 270m people today) have constantly grown and will continue to grow further. Aviation is the only means to connect people and goods rapidly and efficiently.
In the next 20 years, Airbus forecasts that the demand for new aircraft will progressively shift from fleet growth to accelerated replacement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. This will mean a need for over 39,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft, delivered over the next 20 years - around 15,250 of these will be for replacement of older less fuel efficient models..
The demand for new aircraft includes around 29,700 Small aircraft like the A220 and A320 Families, as well as about 5,300 in the Medium aircraft category such as the A321XLR and the A330neo. In the Large segment, covered by the A350, a need for some 4,000 deliveries is expected by 2040.
By that year the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will be of the latest generation, considerably improving the CO2 efficiency of the world’s commercial aircraft fleets.
Having lost nearly two years of growth over the COVID period, passenger traffic has demonstrated its resilience and is set to reconnect to an annual growth of 3.9% per year.
With the growth comes a need for increased commercial aviation services including maintenance, training, upgrades, flight operations, dismantling and recycling.
The services market is rebounding, triggering a need for some 550,000 new pilots and 710,000 highly skilled technicians over the next 20 years.
While maintenance will remain the leading services segment, flight, ground operations and sustainable services are also expected to grow significantly.