Airbus’ latest edition of its Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2022-2041 period offers a forward-looking view of air traffic and fleet evolutions.
The GMF 2022-2041 connects the drivers for air transport demand (GDP, demographics…) with existing measures related to decarbonisation of the sector such as Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) usage and CO2-prices.
The report highlights future traffic growth and aircraft demand (for aircraft over 100 seats category) as well as air freight development and demand for cargo aircraft.
Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast serves as a reference for airlines, airports, suppliers, investors, governments, non-governmental agencies and others. It anticipates that demand for air traffic will continue to develop as it returns to pre-crisis levels.
Aviation connects and unites us!
Aviation connections support commerce and business, governments and education while air cargo provides essential services, carrying 35% of world trade by value, including assistance for global health systems. People also want and need to (re)connect with families and friends.
The GMF2022-2041 is based on a set of energy costs and macro-economic assumptions mostly reflecting the International Energy Agency STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario), incl. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) mandates and announced CO2 prices.
Airbus forecasts that demand for passenger traffic will grow annually by 3.6% (2019-2041 CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate) over the next 20 years.
Airbus forecasts a demand for 39.490 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, of which 31.620 typically Single Aisle and 7.870 typically Widebody.
The demand for Freighters is expected to reach 2,440 aircraft over the next 20 years, with nearly 900 of these new-built.
Only 20% of the current in service fleet is the latest generation fuel efficient aircraft. Replacement of older generation aircraft is one of the most straightforward way to decarbonise the sector.