Airbus Global Services Forecast 2026–2045

GSF stands for Global Services Forecast

The Airbus Global Services Forecast (GSF) models 20-year demand across the commercial aviation aftermarket. It covers passenger aircraft above 100 seats and freighters over 10 tonnes (same scope as the GMF). The scope includes maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), aircraft modifications, digital, connectivity, professional training. 

The commercial aviation services market is forecast to reach US$ 422 billion by 2045, growing at a 3.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from US$ 209 billion in 2026. Growth drivers include active fleet expansion, higher aircraft utilisation, cabin retrofits, and fleet-wide digital adoption. The market scope encompasses maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), maintenance operations support, aircraft modifications, digital connectivity, and professional training across commercial passenger aircraft above 100 seats and freighters over 10 tonnes. 

Global supply chain bottlenecks and delivery schedules require airlines to operate aircraft longer. This increases demand for maintenance checks, engine overhauls, and component repairs. Used Serviceable Material (USM) provides essential replacement parts to maintain operational availability during component scarcity. 

The global services market is projected to expand worldwide, though with distinct regional dynamics.

• Currently, the most mature markets, North America alongside Europe & the CIS, account for nearly 50% of global aftermarket demand. 
  • Over the next 20 years, their combined share is expected to decline to around 40%, largely driven by faster expansion in emerging and developing economies.
• The demand for services will steadily shift eastward, with Asia capturing an increasingly significant share.
  • In 20 years, Asia will generate over 40% of the global market.
  • Over a slightly longer horizon, just over two decades, China is anticipated to become the single largest market.
• South Asia is projected to be the fastest-growing region, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% and expanding nearly fivefold, fueled by rapid growth in traffic.

The global commercial fleet requires 2.44 million new professionals by 2045. Demand includes 660,000 pilots, 730,000 maintenance technicians, and 1,050,000 cabin crew members. Training increasingly relies on Virtual Reality (VR) and AI platforms. 

Over 18,000 aircraft will retire by 2045. The GSF evaluates component recovery and Used Serviceable Material (USM) integration. Dismantling limits raw material consumption and, following certification, eases parts supply to operators. 

Yes. The Airbus Global Services Forecast evaluates market demand for the entire global commercial aircraft fleet regardless of manufacturer. It covers all mainline passenger aircraft with 100 seats or more and dedicated freighters over 10 tonnes payload (same scope as the GMF). It does not include regional jets. 

The Global Services Forecast (GSF) links directly to aircraft delivery and fleet expansion projections established in the Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF). While GMF predicts aircraft demand, GSF projects the operational support, maintenance, and training required to keep that fleet flying.