These were among the key points underscored by John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer - Customers, during his review of Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast for the 2012-2031 timeframe, which was presented today at a London press conference.
According to the new Global Market Forecast, overall worldwide needs for passenger airliners (sized at 100 seats or larger) and for freighters is estimated at some 28,200 aircraft, having a market value of nearly $4 trillion during the two-decade period, with the world’s emerging economic regions being key drivers in this demand.
“Since the year 2000, emerging markets have been opening up very dramatically, and we’re seeing tremendous air traffic increases in areas like India, China, Latin America and Africa – where the growth rate in terms of revenue passenger kilometers is expected to be more than 6 per cent annually from 2012-2031,” Leahy said. “And I am proud to say that Airbus is very, very well positioned in these regions.”
Leahy explained that domestic air traffic expansion in China and India will lead the growth in revenue passenger kilometers through 2031, generating the requirement for modern, efficient regional aircraft such as the A320neo (new engine option). “The domestic PRC (People’s Republic of China) market will be the largest single market in the world in 20 years,” he added. “This means there will be more Chinese domestic traffic in 20 years than inside the United States.”
According to Airbus’ 2012-2031 Global Market Forecast, another factor creating the need for cost-effective regional airliners will be the increased presence of low-cost carriers in Asia-Pacific and Africa.
With overall worldwide passenger traffic growing at an annual rate of 4.7 per cent during the next 20 years, another need of global airlines will be very large aircraft in the category of Airbus’ A380, as well as large twin-engine jetliners. Leahy noted that the world’s aviation “mega-cities,” whose airports serve more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers, will increase from 42 in 2011 to more than 90 by 2031 – accounting for over 95 per cent of all long-haul international trips.
“This generates the need for bigger aircraft like the A380,” Leahy explained. “We are ready to respond to these needs; Airbus is on track for deliveries of 30 A380s this year – having provided 81 of these aircraft to date, which are operating more than 100 flights per day, carrying over one million revenue passengers per month.” For a detailed review of the 2012-2031 outlook, visit the Airbus website’s Global Market Forecast section
, which has the report in booklet form – called "Navigating the Future" – along with briefing slides presented at today’s press conference by John Leahy and Chris Emerson, Airbus Senior Vice President - Future Programmes & Market Strategy. Also provided in this section is a link to download the free iPad-compatible Airbus GMF application from the App Store, along with a video of the London press conference in its entirety.
Also read the Global Market Forecast press release
for a concise overview of the 20-year Airbus market perspective.