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17 June 2008
17. June 2008 Commercial Aircraft

Passenger traffic growth will drive Central Europe to acquire 460 new aircraft in the coming 20 years


Airbus's latest Global Market Forecast predicts that the Central European market will need 460 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years - driven in part by increased traffic and a large replacement opportunity.

Airbus forecasts that the Central European market will need some 460 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, representing a total market value of US$32 billion. Single-aisle aircraft will dominate deliveries to the region, which will also see a growing market for twin-aisle aircraft.

According to Airbus' 2007-2026 Global Market Forecast (GMF), this demand will be driven by Central Europe's increased passenger traffic, which is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.7 per cent - much faster than the world average of 4.9 per cent. Since 2000, Central Europe's air travel has grown by 158 per cent.

The GMF also foresees a large replacement opportunity in the region, with approximately 90 per cent of the current 213 in-service aircraft to be replaced by more ecologically-efficient models.

Poland is a key player in Central Europe, with a geographic location in the heart of the continent and 38.1 million inhabitants, the region's largest population. Poland's air travel has grown by 194 per cent since 2000. Moreover, Poland's economy, which currently represents 36 per cent of Central European gross domestic product, will enjoy strong economic development over the next 20 years.

Poland's in-service passenger fleet is forecast to more than double over the next 20 years reaching 51 aircraft, with a need for 42 new airliners, worth US$4 billion. Of these aircraft, 30 are anticipated to be in the single-aisle category - such as those in the best-selling A320 Family - and 12 in the twin-aisle category. In addition, the hosting of the 2012 UEFA European Championship by Poland with Ukraine will potentially trigger a higher volume in inbound travel.

"Growth in the Central European region will be above the world average and driven by the strong economic development in the area and in Poland in particular. European low cost carriers have already seen this opportunity," said Airbus market analyst Paul Bonnabau. "The majority of the demand will be for aircraft from 100 to 235 seats. This is also true for the Polish market, where we forecast the passenger fleet in service to more than double in the next 20 years."

Read the feature stories on Airbus' Global Market Forecast for the following countries/regions:

Global Market Forecast for North America
Global Market Forecast for Russia
Global Market Forecast for the Nordic countries
Global Market Forecast for Spain
Global Market Forecast for Mexico
Global Market Forecast for Brazil
Global Market Forecast for the Chinese Mainland
Global Market Forecast for Argentina
Global Market Forecast for Germany

See the special Airbus website section with the
complete 2007-2026 Global Market Forecast

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