Traffic with emerging markets driving demand
Airlines in Germany will require more than 1,000 new passenger aircraft (100 seats and above) and freighters (above 10 tons of payload) over the next 20 years, according to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF).
These new passenger and freight aircraft will include 690 single-aisle aircraft, more than 230 twin-aisle medium to long-range wide-body aircraft and close to 100 very large aircraft such as the A380. These new aircraft are valued at ~US$148 billion at today’s list prices.
The main drivers for this investment are the traffic growth between advanced and emerging markets as well as continued strong demand from the developed markets and the benefits that can be derived by operating the most modern and eco-efficient fleets.
As a result, Germany’s passenger aircraft fleet is expected to nearly double, growing from over 670 aircraft in operation at the beginning of 2012 to more than 1,300 by 2031.
“In terms of new passenger aircraft deliveries over the coming 20 years, German airlines will take more aircraft than any other European country and globally is one the top five countries. This demand is driven by Germany’s position as a major aviation gateway for its own people and for globally connecting passengers”, said Chris Emerson, SVP Future Programmes and Market Strategy.
Germany’s air travel has achieved 45% growth from 2000 to 2011 despite the three worst downturns in aviation history. Intra-European traffic (including domestic) grew by more than 30% and traffic to regions outside of Europe by more than 50%.
Today, long-haul traffic to the dynamic emerging regions accounts for more than 40% of Germany’s total long-haul traffic, and is expected to rise up to almost 50% by 2031.
The Airbus GMF predicts that over the next 20 years Europe will show an average annual traffic growth rate of 4.1%. Routes to the Middle East (+5.4%), the CIS (+5.3%) and Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America with a combined growth rate of 4.6%, will be significant levers for growth. Germany’s strong and growing demand for air travel is based on its continued economic development, the strong international orientation of its economy, growing tourism, the continuing growth of low-cost-carriers and the country’s position as a major air transportation gateway.
Seven German civil aircraft operators (Air Berlin, Condor, Germanwings, European Air Transport, Germania, Hamburg Airways and Lufthansa), currently rely on the excellence of Airbus’ modern product range, operating a combined total of more than 350 modern, fuel efficient aircraft (245 A320 Family aircraft, 18 A300/A310s, 83 A330/A340s, and 10 A380s). Overall, Airbus aircraft make up 55% of today’s fleet in Germany. In addition, over 80 aircraft are still in the Airbus backlog for delivery (80 A320 Family aircraft, 1 A330 and 7 A380s). Lufthansa is Europe’s largest Airbus operator and the third largest in the world.