Growth and replacement needs for more eco-efficient aircraft
According to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF), Nordic airlines are predicted to require 424 new passenger aircraft between 2011 and 2030 with a value of US$ 38.6 billion.
These new aircraft deliveries will be dominated by single-aisles (365), such as Airbus’ modern A320 Family. Airbus also forecasts a trend toward larger aircraft sizes as airlines seek to grow capacity efficiently, reduce seat mile costs and simultaneously their impact on the environment. There are 59 twin-aisle new aircraft deliveries forecast over the next 20 years in the Nordics, which will include types such as the A330 and A350 XWB. Around half of the new aircraft requirement for the region will be for the replacement of older less eco-efficient aircraft, and half will be for new aircraft as air travel continues to grow to and from the Nordics.
The Airbus forecast for the Nordic region is based on an analysis of seven countries, where over 50 airlines operate some 302 passenger aircraft today.
Air traffic to, from and within the Nordics has increased by 67% since 2001 with an increase of 87% in international traffic. As well as connecting the region to the rest of Europe and the world, tourism is becoming increasingly important, with its share of GDP in Nordics, expected to reach 6.5% in 2020 compared to 5.6% today.
Driven by tourism, advanced economies with a high standard of living and further developments in the low cost market, Airbus forecasts that the Nordics will average an annual passenger traffic growth rate of 4.0%. This figure is above other developed aviation markets such as North America (2.5%, domestic) and in line with Western Europe (3.5%, inter regionally).
“The aircraft fleet serving the Nordic market will grow from ~300 aircraft today, to more than 500 over the next 20 years, an increase of aircraft in service of 70%”, says Christopher Emerson, Senior Vice President Product Strategy & Market Forecast, Airbus. “This translates into a large demand for more aircraft, which Airbus is well positioned to supply with its range of modern eco-efficient planes”.
With this long term growth, Airbus recognises the need to continually innovate to meet the demands of airlines, passengers and the environment. As part of this vision for a more connected and sustainable world, Airbus has established The ‘Future by Airbus’ – a unique project designed to lead the debate around the global issues impacting aviation in the future and search for solutions today.
Key areas which are addressed in the Future by Airbus vision and have been showcased in the Nordic region this week include: future energy sources; air traffic management and new aircraft models. Today, Airbus is working with partners in the industry to help find green solutions for tomorrow. Such projects include: VINGA – an assignment to reduce CO2 emissions through streamlined flight processes with NovAir in Sweden and various commercial biofuel flights with numerous airlines including Finnair.
Airbus is the world’s leading aircraft manufacturer offering the most modern and efficient passenger aircraft families from 100 to over 500 seats. Headquartered in Toulouse, France, Airbus is an EADS company.
Note to editors:
The Airbus Global Market Forecast gives a detailed analysis of world air transport developments, covering 300 distinct passenger and freight traffic flows, as well as a year-by-year fleet evolution of the world’s aircraft operators, through fleet analysis of more than 800 passenger airlines and 190 freighter operators over the next 20 years. In doing so, the forecast covers aircraft demand from the regional market to the very largest aircraft available, the A380 today.
VINGA & SESAR: The VINGA project is partly financed by the European programme SESAR, which mission is to develop a modernised air traffic management system for Europe. In cooperation with AIRE, Atlantic Interoperability Initiative to Reduce Emission, SESAR operates to make flying more environmentally friendly by reducing emissions and noise in Europe. www.sesarju.eu