Loading…

Traffic Growth

Aircraft Deliveries

Fleet Evolution

Units
Values

Column
Pie

Passenger
Freighter

2012-2021
2022-2031
2012-2031

World Passenger Traffic Forecast
4.7% (2011-2031)

Higher economic growth in emerging markets will drive growth in air traffic.

Aviation remains resilient to crises, has grown 53% since 2000 (includes 9/11, Sars, banking crisis).

Domestic Chinese (PRC) traffic will equal Domestic USA traffic by 2031, each 10.4% of world traffic

An average growth rate of 9.9% per year will make Domestic India the 5th largest flow by 2031

Airlines in the Asia-Pacific will fly 32% of all traffic

Airlines in Europe and North America will fly 44% Middle Eastern carriers will grow from a 7% share to 11% in the next 20 years

Africa
More wealth, more flight, more development

Africa expected to have higher economic growth in the short to medium term than Asia.

Africa’s Middle class to triple to more than 1 billion people by 2060 - 42 % of its population.
Domestic traffic has grown 93%, international traffic has grown by 89% since 2000.
Traffic to and from the Middle East and Asia has grown dramatically, 300% and 126% respectively.
China in particular continues to build strong economic ties, which is driving growth.
The share of low cost airlines in the region has grown from 3% in 2003 to 9% in 2009, still potential to grow.
Today, new low cost ventures are on the horizon.
957 new deliveries – 13% replacement, 87% for growth.
76% will be single-aisles.

CIS
Using flight to help diversification

Russia is the biggest country in the CIS, with a GDP at almost 2 trillion $US in 2011, the ninth largest globally, eighth in terms of population with almost 150 million inhabitants in 2011, and with an area of 17 million km², it is the largest country in the World.

Russia’s economy is underpinned with a wealth of natural resources, owning 25% of all proved natural gas reserves and 6.3% of all proved oil reserves. But is seeking to diversify its economy, for which aviation will play a key role.
Between 1998-2011, domestic and intra-CIS passenger capacity has increased at an annual average growth rate of 9.1%.
Historically, huge productivity improvements have resulted in the number of aircraft operated by CIS airlines to actually decrease, whilst traffic has also increased.
1,229 new deliveries – 22% replacement, 78% for growth.
83% will be single-aisles.

Middle East
Where geography and technology meet

Almost 6 billion people are within 8 hours flight of the gulf countries.

Middle East achieved a 8.9% growth in 2011 despite unrest in the region and the hesitant world economy.
The domestic Middle East market enjoyed a 7.8% growth in 2011.
Gulf airports are expected to boost their capacity by another 130 million passengers by 2018.
Gulf airlines serve more than 600 intercontinental destinations today.
Low cost carriers in the region are taking the benefit of a young, increasingly mobile population, together with a large expatriate community to take 13% of the Intra-regional market.
44% of the population of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain) consists of expatriates. 19 million people flying for work and to visit friends and relatives.
1,906 new deliveries – 27% replacement, 73% for growth • 58% will be twin-aisles, due to the position the region is creating for itself as a major global hub.

North America
Simply the best way from A to B

Today, the domestic US market is the largest single aviation market in the world:
> Over 115 airlines, 4,000+ aircraft >100 seats in service today
> 730 million passengers flown to, from and within the US in 2011.

Over the last year, we have seen the beginnings of the replacement for older aircraft beginning.
Since 1991, growth in spending on travel has outpaced inflation. Per capita annual expenditures on travel in real terms were $348 in 1991and in 2011 they were at $485.
Today, North American carriers have one of the oldest fleets in service of any region.
On average, the fleet 11 years old which is the second oldest in the world, with only Africa’s older, at 12 years old on average.
5,850 new deliveries – 52% replacement, 48% for growth.
85% will be single-aisles due to the strength of the US domestic market.

Europe
Travel in their DNA

Despite the economic uncertainty we have seen in the recent past and slow economic growth forecast in the short to medium term, European people continue to fly.

The growth in LCC’s from 0% to ~45% of seats in 2011 has helped stimulate tourism and VFR (visiting friends and relatives) thereby driving traffic growth beyond what would be expected by GDP growth alone
As new more distant routes are tested by LCCs, average stage lengths have increased, from ~900nm in 2002 to nearly 1150 nm by the end of 2011.
Air traffic within Europe is forecast to grow at the moderate pace of 3.4% per annum.
International traffic will grow at 4.4% per annum, mainly driven by the dynamism of emerging market.
5,700 new deliveries – 40% replacement, 60% for growth.
76% will be single-aisles due to the distance and large population centres served.

Asia-Pacific
More People, more flying

Represents more than a quarter of the world economy today, and possibly a third by 2031.

Asia-Pacific’s economy is growing 2.5 times faster than in Europe or North America.
Nearly 60% of the world’s population by 2031.
23% increase in the number of regularly served cities in Asia-Pacific, between 2005 and 2011, cf. +6% in Europe.
LCCs in Asia-Pacific now represent 21% of seats offered in the region, just 5% in 2005. Still potential including Japan, China.
9,600 new deliveries – 36% replacement, 64% for growth.
37% will be twin-aisles due to the distance and large population centres served.

Latin America
Benefits of flight well understood

In the future Latin America’s economic growth is expected to be in the same range as other highly dynamic regions like the Middle East, Africa and South-East Asia.

In 2000, the Latin American airliner fleet was one of the oldest in a world with an average aircraft age of almost 16 years. Today, its slightly above 10 years, similar to Europe.
Since 2000, the fleet in service has increased by almost 40% from some 800 to more than 1100 aircraft.
The regions carriers have increased their share of capacity from 13% to 21% since 2005.
Latin America’s airports have increased capacity by more than 40% since 2005.
2,085 new deliveries – 31% replacement, 69% for growth.
80% will be single-aisles, driven by strong growth in air travel domestically and around the region (6% intra-regional and domestic growth per annum).