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The world’s fleet, which includes both passenger (from 100 seats to very large aircraft) and freighter aircraft, will grow from 14,980 at the end of 2006 to nearly 33,000 by 2026. At the same time, some 13,772 aircraft from the existing fleet will be replaced by more eco-efficient models. Of these, 4,412 will be recycled back into passenger service, where they too will replace an older generation model with another airline. It is also forecast that 2,901 will be converted to freighters and the remaining 6,459 will be permanently retired or withdrawn from service, where increasing numbers will be decommissioned through environmentally sensitive programmes, such as the Airbus’ PAMELA project.
Looking at this in more detail, the greatest demand for passenger aircraft will come from airlines in the United States, the People’s Republic of China and the United Kingdom. Europe will receive 24% of the total, with North America and Asia-Pacific taking 27% and 31% respectively.
In addition, the world’s airlines will require more than 6,000 smaller aircraft (with 30 to 100 seats) to serve regional demand, especially in the US and Europe.
While traffic demand will nearly triple, airlines will more than double their fleets of passenger aircraft (with over 100 seats) from 13,284 in 2006 to 28,534 in 2026.
This will include deliveries of 23,385 new aircraft. Some 16,620 of these will be single-aisles for domestic and intra-regional flows, which is more than in previous forecasts due to the emergence of low-cost carriers and increased liberalisation. As many as 5,482 twin-aisle passenger aircraft will be required to serve the existing, mainly international, markets and new routes created by ongoing market evolution, while around 1,283 very large passenger aircraft will be needed to link dynamic hub cities. Noticeably, 56% of the world fleet of very large passenger aircraft will be operated by the airlines in the Asia-Pacific region.
Freight traffic is expected to grow at 5.8% per annum and, combined with fleet renewal, this will create demand for 3,778 freighter deliveries, some of which will come from the conversions and 877 of which will be new generation factory-built freighters.
Overall, this means that by 2026 the world’s airlines will take delivery of 24,262 new passenger and freighter aircraft, worth US$2.8 trillion at current list prices. Most of this business will be generated from single-aisle deliveries, while 1,698 large passenger and freighter aircraft will account for 19% of total aircraft delivery value.
This demand will require an average of 1,213 new, eco-efficient aircraft deliveries per year, which combined with the decommissioning of older generation aircraft, will gradually reduce the average fuel consumption of the world’s fleet to less than three litres per 100 seat kilometres, the standard set by the A380 today.
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