Over the next 20 years, combined productivity parameters such as higher utilisation, speed and load factors will deliver a 0.7% annual increase in RPK per seat. Consequently, to accommodate the forecast average traffic growth of 4.9% per year, the world’s airlines will be aiming to increase the number of seats they operate at an average of 4.2% per year. These additional seats will be provided partly by an increase in frequency and partly by an increase in the number of seats per aircraft.
Unsurprisingly, about two thirds of the demand for twin-aisles will come from airlines that operate large global networks and will, therefore, make use of the size and range capability of these aircraft, largely on routes from major hubs to secondary airports. Most of these airlines will require aircraft in all sizes, making across the different segments a key asset. The A350 XWB Family will address demand from the 250-seat segment all the way to the 400-seat segment, while retaining commonality with other Airbus family aircraft ranging from 105 to 525 seats.
Small twin-aisle demand:
Europe and Asia share 59% of demand
There will be 4,302 aircraft in service in the 250 and 300-seat category by 2026. Demand for 349 of those aircraft will be met by aircraft being recycled back into the fleet as the original operators take delivery of one of the 3,867 new aircraft that will be required between 2007 and 2026.
Unlike for single-aisles, the North American market represents only 19% of worldwide demand in this category. European and Asia-Pacific airlines will take 59% of all deliveries in this class, representing some 2,297 aircraft.
By 2026, these small twin-aisle aircraft will be operating at 649 airports, linking a total of almost 3,300 airport pairs. The top ten airports in this category include three in Europe and one in the US, with Dubai in the Middle East, as well as Narita and Beijing in Asia also featuring prominently. Flights from the top 50 airports led by Beijing and London Heathrow will use the productive capacity of half the total demand.
As much as 70% of the small twin-aisle demand is concentrated with 49 airlines.
Intermediate twin-aisles:
A ready home in Asia
The world’s major airlines will operate a total of 1,785 passenger aircraft in the 350 and 400-seat category by 2026; a market segment covered by the A340-600 today as well as the A350-1000XWB in the future. Of these, 1,615 aircraft will be new which will replace 706 of the existing fleet and provide 909 for growth. The distances and types of operation involved in Asia-Pacific mean that it will need the bulk of all deliveries in this category, with 781 aircraft, or 48%. Europe will take 341 aircraft, or 21%, and the growing Middle Eastern market will take 162 aircraft, or 10%.
Twenty years from now, 1,785 intermediate twin-aisles will be operating at 322 airports, linking a total of about 1,190 airport pairs. Of the top ten airports served, seven will be in the Asia-Pacific region, including two in China, and the remaining three will be in Europe.
Compared with the world fleet as a whole, the operation of intermediate twin-aisles will be relatively concentrated, led by London Heathrow, Narita and Beijing airports.
Half of these aircraft will be used on flights from the top 26 airports. In addition, half of intermediate twin-aisles will be used on flights of no more than 6,100 kilometres/
3,300 nautical miles, which is roughly the equivalent of Paris to Washington, while the other half will be used on flights over 7,400km/4,000nm, which is roughly the equivalent of Hong Kong to Sydney.
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