Both frequency and capacity needed

Frequency or capacity are distributed depending on the specific characteristics of each individual city pair, within every one of the 155 traffic flows forecast.

When service starts on a particular route, airlines typically offer one flight per day as soon as possible and then increase frequencies to capture market share and to stimulate demand. However, as mentioned earlier, the benefits of convenient schedules reach a point beyond which there are diminishing returns and no further generation of travel demand. That is why mature markets have just a handful of domestic city pairs with 60 daily flights, equivalent to one every 18 minutes.

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As traffic grows on any particular route, the extent to which it will be accommodated by an increase in aircraft seat capacity, as opposed to an increase in frequency, will depend on where it is situated between the two thresholds.

This analysis for each airport pair shows that by 2026, assuming the infrastructure can cope with the greater volume of flights, airlines worldwide will increase the number of departures they offer, by an average of 3.1% per year. This is significantly higher than the 2.5% per annum increase achieved since 1980 and will present a major challenge to the world’s airports and air traffic control systems.

Meanwhile, the number of seats per aircraft (including regional aircraft) will increase by 1.1% per year, from an average of 134 in 2006 to 167 by 2026, in comparison to a 0.5% yearly increase since 1980.

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