Over the next 20 years, the world’s airlines will require 23,385 new passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats, worth US$2.6 trillion, to serve demand for air travel.
In terms of units, single-aisle aircraft, such as the A320 will account for more than two thirds of this demand and twin-aisles, such as the A350 XWB, will account for 24%. In terms of value, the single-aisles and twin-aisles will represent 43% and 41% of the total demand respectively. Some 1,283 very large passenger aircraft (VLA), like the A380, will be required, accounting for 5% in terms of units and worth an important share of total business at 16% of total value. Each of these seat segments is driven by market conditions, the opportunities and constraints prevailing on each traffic or regional segment, as well as airline strategies and manufacturer product offerings.
As the different world regions are stimulated by different economic timing, demographic, geographic, regulatory and air transportation structural forces, demand within each region will also differ.
Although air travel growth in the larger, more mature domestic markets of North America and Europe will slow in the following decade, demand for aircraft will continue to be strong, driven by a higher number of replacements during that period. In these regions, efficient widebody aircraft will form a larger share of the total requirement, as international long-haul demand will be fuelled by the need to increase travel, to and from the emerging and dynamic markets of Asia.
In the Americas, single-aisles will represent 84% of the total demand for aircraft with more than 100 seats, while European and African demand will be more evenly spread across market segments. The Middle East, and Asia in particular, will represent a larger share of demand for twin-aisles and VLAs. This is mainly due to the fast growing mega-cities on both side of Asia’s international flows, the need to use such aircraft on trunk domestic and intra-regional routes, the fast pace of air travel demand, geographical considerations and the effectiveness of these aircraft in alleviating congestion.
By identifying up to 135 of airline characteristics or criteria, then regrouping them into a small number of pertinent segments (as few as six) each of which covers a wide scope, in other words high granularity, it is clear that 70% of the aircraft deliveries will remain concentrated within the network airlines. The global network airlines, with their large combined single-aisle and widebody fleets, will require 11,273 aircraft of more than 100 seats. Major (medium size network airlines with international reach) and small operators (network or national carriers with a smaller country base) will require almost 5,000 aircraft. The current Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) will require 5,206 aircraft, or 22%. (The 77 LCCs included in this forecast represent 98% of LCC fleets). This share could grow higher as more new Asian LCCs enter the market. The current LCCs, particularly in Asia, will also require as many as 400 widebody aircraft including VLA such as the A380, the ultimate low-cost per seat machine. Regional airlines will also require about 1,000 single-aisle aircraft with more than 100 seats.
In addition to the greater demand for aircraft with more than 100 seats, there will be a need for 6,153 regional aircraft with more than 30 seats (either turboprops or jets). Some 64% of these aircraft will be delivered to regional airlines, however, the network airlines, especially in Europe and Asia will need 1,912 of them. The scope clause evolution in the US will greatly influence the requirement for large regional and smaller single-aisle aircraft in both regional and network airlines fleet. This Global Market Forecast (GMF) assumes a conservative evolution of the scope clause in the US, which will continue to push the seat limit higher, as it has done over the last ten years moving from 55 in 1997 to about 75 seats today. In many cases this will result in larger aircraft for both LCC and network airline models.
The Asia-Pacific region, with its significant emerging markets, is expected to take the largest share of deliveries. Although Asia’s fleet is currently 22% of the world fleet, Airbus expects demand for 7,231 new aircraft in Asia-Pacific, representing as much as 31% of the total world demand over the next 20 years.
The more mature, yet still significant markets of North America and Europe, are expected to take 27% and 24% of total deliveries respectively. The rest of the world will take the remaining 18%, including 6% for Latin America, which at times will rival the traffic, fleet size growth and aircraft demand expected in Asia.
Replacements driven by age and eco-efficiency
Airlines will acquire aircraft not only to accommodate growth, but also to replace older equipment with more eco-efficient, comfortable and lower cost aircraft. Increased productivity and larger aircraft, will see the traffic demand grow by 4.9% per year and the aircraft fleet by 3.9% per year to satisfy demand for air travel.
The world fleet of aircraft with at least 100 seats will grow from 13,284 today to 28,534 in 2026. However, only the most efficient, like the A320 Family will remain in service to the end of the forecast period. The fuel consumption of the average aircraft in 2026 will be less than three litres per passenger, per 100 kilometres, in comparison to five litres in 2006 and eight litres in 1986. The A380 consumes less than three litres per seat, per 100 kilometres, 20 years ahead of today’s fleet.
Up to 95% of the current fleet will be either replaced or recycled into other airlines. Some 8,135 older, less efficient aircraft will leave passenger service, either to be
definitively withdrawn from use, or converted to freighter or other non-airline roles. In addition, many of the 4,412 aircraft recycled back into passenger service through sale, lease or lease extension will also be replacing much older, less efficient models.
In other words, every one of the 12,547 aircraft leaving their initial operator creates an opportunity to replace them with new, more eco-efficient models.
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