Where the future potential is as exciting as today’s realityFuelled by its emerging markets, Asian regional economic growth has maintained impressive momentum. China and India alone account for 55% of the region’s total output (excluding Japan). With a surging domestic demand and accelerating exports, India’s economy expanded at its fastest rate for 18 years during the financial year 2007. China meanwhile, grew at 11.5% in annual terms for the first half of the year. One effect of this growth has been to stimulate intra-region exports, which will probably require increased trade liberalisation between Asian states and possibly at a more global level, if it is to achieve its full potential. Over the 20 year forecast period of the Global Market Forcast (GMF), the Asia-Pacific real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at an average of 4.2% per year, or 5.9% if Japan is excluded from the assessment. However, the most important factor influencing Asia’s outlook in the next few years will come from its 3.5 billion consumers. A new paradigm is emerging that will shift our view from Asia as "the world’s producer" to "the world’s largest consumer". What is even more encouraging is that this has all been achieved in a market where there is so much additional potential demand as the people of Asia want and need increased mobility. This is particularly true in terms of domestic and inter-regional flying, and for those nations considered as emerging economies and markets. For example, China and India are encouraging greater regional flying, with plans to promote more green field airport developments and to further develop regional and provincial airports. In China, the change of role or dual use of some military airfields for commercial activities is being considered to help facilitate growth and provide secondary airport alternatives for airlines on the domestic market. Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs) continue to go from strength to strength in the region, with the number of seat kilometres offered by these airlines increasing by 69% between September 2005 and the same month in 2006. Internationally the picture is very similar, with 72% of the demand between Asia and Europe in terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) being centred on the same 11 Asian hub cities. Over the next ten years, air traffic growth within Asia-Pacific is expected to average 8% per annum, higher than anywhere in the world, except Africa. This impressive growth will be stimulated by the continued expansion of the region’s LCCs, as well as its tiger and emerging economies. This will subsequently act as a catalyst for growth in other more mature parts of the region, such as Japan. Traffic growth to all other regions of the world is forecast to far exceed the world average of 4.9% per annum. |
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