More than 20 emerging markets in the making

Although China and India are the largest emerging markets, there are other smaller, but significant markets, which are either currently emerging or could potentially emerge during the next decade, in terms of their economies and air transportation. According to the United Nations, there are 27 emerging or potentially emerging countries (excluding China and India), which represent a combined population of almost three billion people.

Airbus has developed four different methods, highlighted opposite, to assess and identify the countries or markets that could not only emerge economically, but also in which air transport could flourish as a result.

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The four methods are based on (1) a thorough assessment of the criteria or indicators (qualitative and quantitative) that drive a country�s economy and air transportation and (2) the evaluation of each country against those pertinent criteria and indicators.
The indicators are essentially grouped in four categories: demographics, economics, resources, and geopolitics. Demographic indicators include population growth,
urbanisation, income, social class development and their propensity to travel.
The economic factors are GDP per capita, trade, household consumption, inflation and industrial deregulation. Resources include human capital, commodities, infrastructure, tourism attractiveness, geography (location, coast, mountain) and access to technology, airlines or airports.
Geopolitics include the degree of "openness", the strength of the institutions, capacity for change, political stability and potential conflicts.

The four methodologies used to identify the degree of emergence of the countries studied are Composite Index (CI), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Clustering (CL) and Discriminant Analysis (DA), all recognised methods used in analysis of this type.
In Airbus� analysis, if a particular country is highlighted by at least three of the four methods, they are considered to be in the "emergent country" category, in terms of air transport. As a result, the top ten most promising countries in terms of this analysis (other than Brazil, Russia, India and China) are in alphabetical order: Algeria, Argentina, Columbia, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, South Africa and Vietnam, which have a combined population of nearly one billion people.

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