Large emerging markets, more dedicated freightersIn this freight forecast, Airbus examines international and domestic freight traffic for 144 traffic flows between and within 14 world regions covering 97% of total global traffic. The type of goods exchanged, such as sub-segments of high tech, consumer or foods, is an important driver of traffic development. Their value and time sensitivity greatly influence the type of transport that shippers will select, which, in turn, influences the type of freighters used in each market segment. The analysis of structural industry shifts, such as the new express markets and the emerging markets, is also important in determining the growth drivers of the freight market. Airbus forecasts that air cargo traffic will increase by an average of 5.8% per year between 2007 and 2026. This healthy growth will be driven by the two largest international flows, People’s Republic of China (PRC) to North America and PRC to Europe, which are expected to increase by as much as 9% per year. Europe-North America, which is more mature and much smaller in volume, will grow at a moderate pace of 4.2% per year. Today, domestic cargo traffic represents 15% of total worldwide traffic, most of which comes from the mature United States (US) market. Despite several years of stagnation in the volume of express packages and the concurrent development of ground based services, the US domestic air cargo market, which is still driven by express operations, is expected to grow long-term at 2.9% per year. This is consistent with long-term US economic forecasts. However, domestic markets around the world are expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, largely due to emerging express freight demand within the PRC. Although PRC domestic airfreight is currently small, a large part of its growth is expected to come from the enormous potential for express package demand. The emerging express market is driven by the growing importance of manufacturing and the assembly of electronics and telecommunication components; the shift towards lean, capital intensive manufacturing; the growing banking sector; and the increased personal consumption of more discretionary goods. Although modest in volume for the next few years, growth will accelerate after the turn of the next decade. With just a few dedicated freighter aircraft in service, the current level of express Over the next 20 years, Chinese exports and the emerging express market will radically change the hierarchy of the top freight traffic flows. Three flows involving the PRC will grow at a double-digit yearly pace for the next ten years, before moving into the world’s top five by 2026. Today, the domestic US market is the largest flow, twice as big as that from PRC to North America. However, by 2026 the ranking of those two flows will be reversed. In fact, with almost 10% growth per year, the flow from PRC to North America will become almost twice the size of the US domestic market by 2026. |
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