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The tripling of freight traffic over the next 20 years will be achieved through a combination of more dedicated freighters, more larger freight aircraft, higher utilisation and higher load factors. It is estimated that the freighter fleet will grow by 150% with average aircraft payload increasing 21% from 52.9 tonnes to 64.1 tonnes. In addition, Airbus expects that operators will fly their aircraft for more hours each year and will be able to modestly increase load factors. These two elements are expected to contribute another 11% to the increase in the number of Freight Tonne Kilometres (FTKs). Freighter fleet requirements result from the difference between traffic demand and capacity used in the underfloor compartments of passenger aircraft. Underfloor capacity is abundant on high-volume passenger routes, but can often be inadequate for express operations. On some long, high-load factor passenger routes it can be almost non-existent. This availability, coupled with the respective growth of passenger and freight markets, shapes the demand for freighter capacity. Today the backlog for new aircraft is higher than ever. Since 2000 the average order to delivery period for freight aircraft has been 2.3 years. However, recent orders include delivery dates that are an average of almost four years ahead. This reflects the operators’ confidence in future demand, the availability and benefits of eco-efficient new aircraft, and the tensions existing on the conversion market. Ordering has also been driven by the launch of new build freighter programmes, like the A330-200F. A detailed, aircraft by aircraft analysis and an assessment of conversion centre capabilities, indicate that few widebody aircraft will be available for conversion to freighter before the end of the next decade. This scarcity is the result of strong international passenger demand, a lack of suitable aircraft and, conversion slots. This has pushed orders for new widebody freighters to new heights, a situation likely to continue until the end of the decade. |
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